奶牛胃肠道甲烷排放模型估算精度的评估分析

doi:10.11843/j.issn.0366-6964.2015.09.012

Abstract

Abstract:

This experiment was conducted to evaluate and compare the accuracy of 8 published models to predict the enteric methane emissions in dairy cows，and analyze the factors that could affect the accuracy of prediction.28 Chinese Holstein dairy cows were selected in the Wangcheng Bairuopu dairy farm，Hunan province，to determine the enteric methane emissions，body weight，milk production，feed intake and other nutrients intake(acid detergent fiber，neutral detergent fiber and gross energy) and etc.The difference between the predicted and observed values of enteric methane emissions from dairy cows was estimated and compared based on the mean squared prediction error（MSPE）and concordance correlation coefficient（CCC）methods，and the factors influencing the accuracy of predictions of 8 published models were analyzed.The results showed that the highest accuracy of prediction for model 8，medium accuracy of prediction for model 1，2，3 and 6，and the lowest accuracy of prediction for model 4，5 and 7.The errors influencing the accuracy of model 1 and 2 were mainly caused by deviation of regression slope from unity；the errors influencing the accuracy of model 3，6 and 7 were mainly caused by the overall bias；the errors influencing the accuracy of model 4 and 5 were caused by both deviation of regression slope from unity and overall bias.The predicting errors of model 1 and 2 were attributed to the difference of calculated Ym and IPCC default Ym；the predicting errors of model 3 was due to that enteric methane emissions for the model 3 was higher than that in this study under the same DMI；the predicting errors of the model 4，5 and 6 were mainly caused for not considering the rumen feed digestion of carbohydrate，ruminal passage rate of dietary nutrient and etc；the predicting errors of model 7 was due to that rice straw intake couldn’t represent real dietary forage intake.Model 8 with 2 variables of milk yield（kg•d^-1）and BW（kg）had the highest accurancy of prediction in this trial.Experiments are still needed to collect more data to develop accurate and reliable methods of models to predict enteric methane emissions in dairy cows.

CLC Number:

XIE Tian-yu，WANG Min，WANG Rong，YAN Zhi-cheng，SHI Hui-yu，GAO Min，TAN Zhi-liang. Evaluation of Accuracy of Models to Predict Enteric Methane Emissions in Dairy Cows[J]. ACTA VETERINARIA ET ZOOTECHNICA SINICA, 2015, 46(9): 1574-1583.

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Evaluation of Accuracy of Models to Predict Enteric Methane Emissions in Dairy Cows

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